GERD - The Losers

 When it comes to decisions on the utilisation and allocation of the waters of transboundary rivers, there are always losers and winners. For those impacted by the GERD, this is no exception. In this blog I will explore how Egypt and downstream riparians have been negatively affected by the construction of the GERD. 

Egypt

As I have mentioned in previous posts, Egypt has had a heavy reliance upon the Nile for millennia, with the majority of its population living along its banks and using its waters as their main source of supply. Historically Egypt has been the political powerhouse of the region, having almost complete control over the river and thus their water security. The inequitable treaties of the colonial period only exacerbated this control, giving Egypt veto power over any developments (El-Nashar and Elyamany, 2018). However, with the changing geopolitical situation of the region, the other riparian countries have started to gain more power, especially Ethiopia. The construction of the GERD highlights this shift in power. In 2011, when the plans for the GERD were announced by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan immediately rejected them, arguing that a committee needed to assess the impacts on the downstream countries. The announcement of the GERD immediately increased tensions over the Nile, with Egypt not ruling out the possibility of war in order to protect its water security (Higdon, Sheehan and Eskew, 2020). 

Watch this video for a brief overview of some of the issues for Egypt:

Egypt's reasons for opposing the dam

• Negative impacts to downstream nations:
• The dependency Ratio shows the amount of water a country receives from neighbouring, upstream countries. 
• A 100% Dependency Ratio means that a country receives all of its water from upstream countries
• The dependency ratios of Egypt and Sudan are extremely high, at 96.9% and 96.1% respectively (Figure 1).
• Therefore, any developments upstream will significantly impact their water supply.
• Threatens Egypts water supply & raises concerns about water shortages:
• Ethiopia’s main reason for the GERD is for power generation not consumption,
• However the operations of the dam will still seriously alter downstream flow patterns (Wheeler, Jeuland, Hall ,et al., 2020).  
• Officials in the Ministry of Irrigation claimed that Egypt would lose 20%-30% of its share of the Nile waters.
• This is especially a worry during the filling of the reservoir which has been estimated to take from 5-7 years.
• The GERD would cause Egypts High Aswan Dam (HAD) to suffer a 30% decrease in its electricity generation (Higdon, Sheehan and Eskew, 2020). 
• Agricultural impacts:
• The GERD has the potential to greatly reduce the amount of water and nutrients found in the Nile Delta.  
• The Nile River Delta is hugely important for Egypt's agricultural production
• The dam could reduce the amount of silt and sediment that flows through the water to downstream countries by as much as 85% (Tesfa, 2013).
• This will have some positive impacts as it will reduce the sediment build up in the HAD; so improving efficiency of the dam and reducing costs of dredging clogged irrigation channels. 
• However, there are also negative impacts - this sediment supplies nutrients to the soil for agriculture along the Nile River in Egypt.
• A reduction in the sediment will reduce the fertility of the soil and consequently reduce Egypts agricultural productivity. 

Figure 1: Graph showing countries with the highest dependency ratio

Source: (Brixey-Williams, 2015)